Previously we set up the first site in Flowing Springs (Site3a) and explained our strategy. Now we will set up the second Site3b and experience "Beextinction" as we fear that all our remaining bees/cocoons are dead.
We have placed all of the habitats at both Site3 locations so it is time to fill the PVC tubes with cocoons and any bees that have already emerged. We had kept the cocoons/bees in a 'cold pack' on the trip from Phoenix through Cornville and then put them in our cabin refrigerator over night.
We had two packs of 1,250 Pennsylvania (PA) bees. When we removed that packs from the refrigerator and opened them to observe the activity, we were alarmed. There was no activity. At Cornville, the bees were literally buzzing with activity. We were immediately concerned that something was wrong.
So, Gene autopsied one cocoon, then another:
Gene immediately turned to me and said, "He's dead, Jim".
Our conclusion was that all the bees/cocoons were dead or not viable. At that point we started considering our options. We didn't want to have to go tell Joanne that we've got nothing; no bees for you.
Then Gene did what a good researcher should do. He stopped, reanalyzed the situation and observed.
I (Jim) was drawing the Site3b map and he said to me, "I saw one of the bees move." I thought it was wishful thinking. Then out of the corner of my eye, I saw a leg move.
So, why did we make this error? This is an negative example of 'confirmation bias'; what we expected to see, we didn't, and jumped to a conclusion.
Scott Adams, yes the 'Dilbert' Scott Adams, lists all of the type of biases on pages 112--115
... of his great book on how to succeed at life, 'How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big: Kind of the Story of My Life'. Buy it.
His list of biases applies equally well to research projects.
So, retaining a number of the bees/cocoons for control purposes, we placed the remaining roughly (Site3a: 1,250 + 600) +(Site3a: 200) = 2,050 bees/cocoons at the two sites.
We will observe the results and decide what to do with the control set of bees when we get some more information.
And we did take pity on the elk last summer during the drought when food was so scarce. Last summer, we bought a bale of hay and a salt lick and placed it in the backyard of Site3b.
Look, I'm wearing the same shirt.
And the elk came for a midnight snack:
What the elk didn't finish, the cattle did.
Finally, on the road back to Phoenix, we stopped to view the flowers.
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